مقاله The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Ruled under Model Uncertainty+کد داینر
عنوان کامل مقاله: The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Ruled under Model Uncertainty
نویسندگان: Andrew Levin, Volker Wieland and John C. Williams
We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty: such rules respond to the one- year-ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia. In contrast, rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy. Finally, we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences.
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